[SMM Chromium Daily Review] The Chromium Market Remains Under Pressure, with Transactions and Shipments Yet to Recover

On November 4, 2025, the ex-factory price of high-carbon ferrochrome in Inner Mongolia was 8,150-8,200 yuan/mt (50% metal content); in Sichuan and north-west China, the ex-factory price was 8,200-8,250 yuan/mt (50% metal content); in east China, offers for high-carbon ferrochrome were 8,250-8,400 yuan/mt (50% metal content), down 75 yuan/mt (50% metal content) MoM from the previous trading day. For imported ferrochrome, South African high-carbon ferrochrome was offered at 8,100-8,400 yuan/mt (50% metal content); Kazakh high-carbon ferrochrome was offered at 9,100-9,400 yuan/mt (50% metal content), flat MoM from the previous trading day.

During the day, inquiry activity in the ferrochrome market remained sluggish. With the arrival of the off-season, downstream stainless steel market performance was weak, and soft end-use demand affected steel mill shipments, leading to a cautious wait-and-see stance on ferrochrome procurement. Coupled with recent production increases and resumptions by ferrochrome producers, domestic ferrochrome production continued to fluctuate at highs, alleviating previous tight supply conditions. Market confidence was insufficient, with relatively bearish expectations for the outlook. However, considering the limited realization of expected stainless steel production cuts in November, rigid demand for ferrochrome remains supportive. Additionally, imported ferrochrome is expected to stay low, and domestic production increases cannot fully cover the supply gap. Therefore, the room for a deep decline in ferrochrome prices is limited, and prices are expected to remain in the doldrums in the short term.

Raw material side, on November 4, 2025, spot 40-42% South African fines at Tianjin Port were offered at 54.5-55.5 yuan/mtu; 40-42% South African raw ore was offered at 48.5-49.5 yuan/mtu; 46-48% Zimbabwean chrome concentrate was offered at 55-56 yuan/mtu; 48-50% Zimbabwean chrome concentrate was offered at 56.5-58 yuan/mtu; 40-42% Turkish chrome lump ore was offered at 58.5-60 yuan/mtu; 46-48% Turkish chrome concentrate was offered at 65-66 yuan/mtu, down 0.5 yuan/mtu MoM from the previous trading day. For futures, 40-42% South African fines were offered at $279-282/mt; 48-50% Zimbabwean chrome concentrate was offered at $340-350/mt, flat MoM from the previous trading day.

During the day, the chrome ore market was in the doldrums. With supply growth and weak demand, chrome ore prices continued a gradual decline. Buyers mainly consumed their own inventory, showing a clear wait-and-see attitude, and their efforts to drive down prices through counteroffers continued, with the psychological price level breaking through 54 yuan/mtu. On the seller side, concentrated chrome ore arrivals and port inventory fluctuating at highs increased pressure on traders to hold cargo. To liquidate promptly and recoup funds, many lowered their offers. However, as spot chrome ore prices gradually approach the cost line, a mentality to hold prices firm is leading to a stalemate in the short term, resulting in a tug-of-war between sellers and buyers. For futures, the market primarily awaited the new round of offers from major overseas mines for South African 40-42% chrome fines. Large mine offers were flat, but small and medium-sized mines already had offers at $280. Combined with South African chrome ore exports reaching a record high and subsequent supply continuing to increase, chrome ore futures offers are expected to potentially loosen. It is expected that the chrome ore market will operate in the doldrums, generally stable with slight fall in the short term.